SARAH PALIN 2012

Let me be clear: I'll never vote for Sarah Palin. I'm an Obama Democrat in a powerful way. But I want to see Palin run against Obama.

I disagree with her politically. But, I have to admit it, I like Palin. Her speeches are incredible, speaking to people in a way that few politicians can, while being ungraspable for pundits and reporters. Technically, she says nothing, but manages to get standing ovations. She is dramatically and amazingly underestimated by everyone on the Left, and by most insider politicians on the Right. On the Left, we demonize her, ridicule her and fear, fear, fear her. In the Right establishment, they applaud her but dismiss her. Both groups completely miss, or simply discount, her unique and astonishing power.

Ross Douthat, a columnist from the New York Times, explains how Palin is the "perfect foil" for Obama. Obama's narrative is that anyone, no matter their background, can turn out to be especially gifted, go to Harvard and become a world leader. Palin's narrative is that an ordinary, normal person can make their voice heard by the elites. Both represent something important about this country, and both are able to speak to us in compelling, personal ways.

While Obama speaks to those who aspire to become better, Palin speaks to the segments of America who feel left behind by the future. The Americans who feel like prosperity is their natural right, and that it has been stolen by the political elites and by the imaginary specters of "immigrants." They are the same delicate and nervous Americans who have voted against their best economic interests over and over and over again, because of Willie Horton ads and "Government is not the solution" speeches. Discount and dismiss those Americans at your peril.

I should also say that it will be very difficult for Palin to win in the Republican primaries. She doesn't have the big donors, and she doesn't have many actual political ideas. She only has a chance if, in 2012, employment is on the rise, and the economy is no longer anyone's concern. If the economy is a concern, then the Republicans will turn to Mitt Romney, who is considered capable of handling economic matters. And, if the economy sucks, Romney will probably beat Obama. The economy is the first and, if it's in trouble, the only issue that will be used to judge Obama in 2012.

If employment is recovering in 2012 (it probably will be) and people feel comfortable with economic prosperity, then I think the Republican platform will have to shift to social issues. Palin might have a chance then. Fox News and other GOP policy dissemination machines are already focused unwaveringly on trumping up fears about Obama's "otherness." He's not like us, he's not like the "founding fathers." The GOP is caught in a troubling predicament. They can't lose the far-right base, located in the South, but they can't win the growing Latino or African-American votes without offending those all-white southern voters. Their solution is, apparently, to make the rest of us white voters as scared and as offended by Obama as those whites are in the South. Though she's definitely not the only Republicans who can rally up and channel those fears, she's one of the party's strongest and most powerful voices in that realm.

All that said, the Republican establishment will probably want to run someone other than Palin. I don't know if anyone, even Palin's supporters, think she could beat Obama in a debate.

I get scared, thinking about the future. I know that there's a big storm brewing. Minorities are becoming the majority, and society is changing dramatically. The white terror backlash is only going to grow and, if there is no outlet for the confusion and fear, it is possibly going to become dangerous. Palin running against Obama would be that outlet. And such an election would force Americans to confront the coming changes, and make a definite choice.